Al Sunshine

While gold remains at near record high, wholesale oil is slowly moving downward. Fortunately, Tropical Storm Ida left the Gulf’s oilrigs unscathed and prices recently were under $79 a barrel. There also are new reports that there is a glut of oil in the market which means pump prices could stabilize or even start dropping.

In the world of retail, the latest third quarter earnings are showing better than expected results. Walmart’s latest earnings are forecast to come in better than expected. This is prompting analysts to believe that the retail sector is seeing some solid growth that could yield the best numbers since the recession started in December 2007. Federal Reserve Board members are saying publicly they expect low interest rates to remain possibly through the first half of next year.

As for South Florida, low interest rates are continuing to help local real estate markets. The Federal Reserves are voting to leave the rates at record lows and they are expected to stay that way through the first quarter of 2010.

In Miami, third quarter single-family home sales jumped 44 percent. Even the local condo market is starting to see growth again. However, condo selling prices are still down by about 33 percent since last fall. They are expecting to remain depressed for quite a while. Nationally, home prices are dropping. The question remains for analysts, how much farther are they going to fall, or have we reached the bottom?

Unemployment recently went up to 10.2 percent. That is the worst level since 1983, with 190,000 more jobs lost last month. Since the recession officially began at the end of 2007, 8.2 million jobs have been lost. Hiring here and across the country is “flat.” In fact, 68,000 fewer people needed long-term unemployment assistance than just a few weeks ago. At the same time, the latest retail sales for October show overall spending up about 2 percent from September.

On the housing front, the Feds unveiled a new “Lease for Deed” program which basically halts formal foreclosure proceedings and allows homeowners to keep their homes and lease their properties “if” they took out federally backed loans through the “Fannie Mae” program. Congress just approved a series of new economic programs aimed at pumping another $24 billion into the economy.

The Dow has been on track so far and hopefully there will continue to be solid improvements. Don’t be surprised to see more rebalancing and continued volatility in the coming weeks. Still, it may be a while before anyone knows how much more short term growth Wall Street can sustain. If the current market trends continue, late month trading could leave Wall Street with more solid gains.

As for now, Wall Street still is growing, as well as our 401K accounts and other investments. The question is, will we be able to see the 11,000 mark before the end of the year or will we fall back into the 9800s?

Watch Al Sunshine’s “4 Your Money” reports Monday-Friday beginning at noon. You may find Al’s blog at <www.cbs4.com/4yourmoney>.